GOP NOT IN BAD SHAPE – AT 11:53 A.M. ET:  The Republican side is doing remarkably well in the latest polls, negating the conventional wisdom, enthusiastically peddled by the press, that it faces impending doom.  First, the president is at 50% in Rasmussen, which is the only daily tracking poll remaining:   

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows that 50% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance. Forty-nine percent (49%) disapprove.

The latest figures include 33% who Strongly Approve of the way the president is performing and 40% who Strongly Disapprove. This gives him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -7.

Don't be surprised if the president's number is a bit lower on Monday.  I've noticed a pattern – Mr. Trump declines between two and three points over the weekend, then makes it up during the week.  I have no idea why that is, but it may have something to do with the fact that the Monday number reflects weekend polling, which may be done using a slightly different sample than the weekday survey employs.

The generic ballot represents preference for party in the upcoming midterm elections.  Here again, Republicans, while behind, are in much better shape than they were several months ago.  See this, from RealClearPolitics.   The Dems lead by only four points, whereas several months ago their lead, in most surveys, was in double digits.

I suspect the reasons for the Dem decline are, first, that the president is doing better and bringing his party up with him, and, second, that the Democratic Party is a mess, provides no policy alternatives, and increasingly is seen as a left-wing lunatic bin. 

Of course, polls are snapshots in time.  The Dems can get their act together (unlikely), or the pro-left bias of the press can have a stronger effect.  Also, the first midterm election after a new president takes office usually produces a windfall for the opposition.  If that happens this year, it would be consistent with history.  If it doesn't, the Dems might need to be replaced by a real political party.

May 19, 2018